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28 November 2007

Unreal Estate

Around here, the end of the month brings with it the latest monthly news about the slumping housing market. The best data comes from The Warren Group, which uses data from registries of deeds. The local realtors report on the housing market each month, as well, but prefer not to include foreclosure data, perhaps because that data is so depressing.

More importantly, the local realtors are always putting a positive spin on the market, for it is always a good time to buy.

"While sales were down last month, it is important to note that year-to-date residential sales activity is off only 2 percent from this time last year," Doug Azarian, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, said in a statement. "In addition, residential inventory continues to decline from a year ago, and mortgage rates have come down in recent months. For qualified buyers, this remains a good time to buy."

Last month was also a good time to buy.

Doug Azarian, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, said a pickup in sales of higher-priced homes this year is also shoring up median prices across the state. "It'll be interesting to see what October brings" after the steep decline in September sales, he said.

Despite September's decline, Azarian noted that overall sales in the third quarter were still the fourth highest in 27 years.

And another good time to buy was September.

Doug Azarian, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, also issued a statement.

"It is definitely a positive sign to see two consecutive months of year-over-year sales gains to end the summer," Azarian said. "Combined with the recent interest rate drop by the Fed and continued legislative action on Capitol Hill, the potential for continued sales growth through the fall is good."

In August, Azarian was not quoted, but the local broadsheet found another realtor to exude optimism; we are told that "[t]he savvy buyers are out there picking up all kinds of wonderful deals."

In June, the real estate market was poised for recovery.

Doug Azarian, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, said the spring market has been disappointing, but contended that there are signs it is moving closer to a turnaround. In addition to the stabilizing or slightly higher prices that his organization reported, inventories are shrinking....

"I'm optimistic that inventories are coming down," Azarian said. "The spring market was not as strong as we had hoped, but we are making progress in bringing supply and demand into balance."

In April, the market was supposed to be a stable one.

"They're hovering where they were a year ago, which shows the market has stabilized," said Doug Azarian, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Realtors generally represent sellers, not buyers, but that they also make money only when sales happen. They have economic incentives to spin every morsel of housing data in a way that encourages buying, especially buying right now. Anyone expecting them to report on the housing market in an objective, historically informed manner might as well expect to get a real pony for Christmas.

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Posted by Tim W at 11/28/2007 12:20:00 AM

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