One Silver Lining
There may be one positive thing in the United States from the assassination of Benazir Bhutto&8212;the realization in the popular media that its usual sources are useless and that talking to actual experts might be useful.
Imagine if that had been the case in the run-up to war in late 2001 and early 2002.
Anyway, Harper's has posted a lengthy interview with Barnett Rubin on the situation in Pakistan.
If the main threat is the kind of terrorism that the US experienced on 9/11, then the administration has gone about it in a totally wrong way. The problem is not "terrorism" or Islamist extremism. Hamas and Hizbullah are no more interested in attacking unserere beliebte Heimat than are the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (which I think invented suicide bombing) or the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda. Al-Qaida's headquarters used to be in Afghanistan and now is in Pakistan. Their main source of recruitment is Western Europe. So what are we doing in Iraq?
There is another kind of argument that might justify a focus on Iraq: it is possible that 9/11 type terrorism is not in fact the major threat we face. Maybe al-Qaida got lucky once and could never do it again. Maybe they could be contained with a stable government in Afghanistan and some smart intelligence and police work, and the real threats are the traditional ones of access to resources, managing changes in power (the rise of China, recovery of Russia), nuclear proliferation, etc.
He also had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that is, alas, behind the paywall. Fancy that: contrarian thinking seeing the light of day. May wonders never cease.
Labels: Barnett Rubin, Pakistan, smart media tricks
