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11 February 2008

Weather or Not, Redux

It bears repeating. As I mentioned last week, bad weather does not significantly reduce voter turnout, especially when voters care about either voting in general or about the election in question.

So why do stories about the Maine caucuses mention high turnout and bad weather like they need potent emulsification to exist together?

The turnout was high at many caucus sites, despite harsh weather. Many people in Maine's 420 cities and towns were taking part in the state's delegate-selection process for the first time, driven to participate by excitement over the highly competitive race.

"If it wasn't so close I wouldn't vote," said Mark Antoine, who waited more than an hour in line at the state's largest caucus site, Portland High School, to cast his vote for Obama. Antoine, 20, said it was the first time he had participated in any election.

There was no parking for several blocks around the school, and some stood in slushy snow and shivered in lines that extended around the block.

"At the end of the day, we're from Maine and snow is not going to stop us from getting out," said Arden Manning, executive director of the Maine Democratic Party.

It should come as little surprise that when potential voters think that their vote is important, venturing out in the rain or snow is hardly going to dissuade them from something that they can only do once every one to four years.

Why journalists cannot even intuit that voting might have a different set of motivations than going out for a jog or running errands, to pick two things that might get deferred because of bad weather, is a mystery.

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Posted by Tim W at 2/11/2008 09:25:00 PM

05 February 2008

Weather or Not

It is primary day in Massachusetts and it has rained off and on all day. And this means that the local media are playing up how the weather will affect turnout.

The gray, gloomy rain that had soaked early primary voters stopped this afternoon when storm clouds moved south. The dry weather is predicted to last until after the polls close at 8 p.m., which may give turnout an extra bump in an election that is expected to draw 1.3 million voters across the state.

Stop it. Stop the incessant and inane chatter about how weather and turnout are necessarily linked. When political scientists analyze actual elections and actual voters and whether they actually vote, they find that there is no support for linking bad weather to overall turnout. The only significant correlation is for voters who are unlikely to vote in the first place ("those respondents scoring low on the standard National Election Studies civic duty indicator").

Think about it. If you have thought about the issues and the candidates, and think that voting is important, is a little rain really going to stop you?. Only in cloud-cuckoo-land, and in the mainstream media.

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Posted by Tim W at 2/05/2008 05:01:00 PM

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